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Real Estate Armageddon Part Three

The beat goes on, the beat goes on.
- Sonny and Cher.

By Alberto Marrero Salas
Published on LatinoLA: December 12, 2009


Real Estate Armageddon Part Three


In March of 2007 in LATINOLA I authored and article titled Real Estate Armageddon.

This is the third of the series following Real Estate Armageddon the Sequel in 2008.

Just when you thought it was safe to consider buying a home disturbing news has come to light.
You won't find this on the National Association of REALTORS page but you will find it at realtytrac.com the premier real estate website.

If you thought 2008 was bad guess what? Hard to believe but 2009 has been worse with foreclosures reaching all time highs.

And the worse part is that unemployment the greatest culprit in the rise of foreclosures is not expected to peak until the first quarter of 2010.

We are not talking about sub prime funny money loans. Those have already defaulted a long time ago. We are talking about alt 1 loans and PRIME loans, loans that no one would have ever thought would go into default and foreclosure.

There really should be no surprise. Last month we lost ONLY 11,000 jobs where we expected to lose over 100,000 and that was taken as good news.

As long as unemployment keeps rising less and less people will be able to pay their mortgage.

This increases the number of homes on the market, thereby pushing supply up and prices down. Foreclosure filings will reach 3.9 million in 2009 versus 3.2 million in 2008.

Over 300,000 foreclosure filings occurred last month. The ninth straight month that this has occurred.

With over 7.2 million jobs lost since December of 2007 in the worst postwar slump John Quigley an economics professor at the UC at Berkeley stated that "you can't start seeing improvement in the housing market until unemployment peaks" and that won't occur optimistically until the first quarter of 2010.

Through November, U.S. lenders had permanently modified about 31,000 of the 4 million mortgages targeted for relief by the Obama administration's foreclosure prevention plan. That's less than 5 percent of eligible loans, the Treasury Department said today.

Loan-modification programs and an expanded government tax credit for first-time homebuyers are helping slow the monthly pace of foreclosure filings and "keeping a lid" on further property seizures, James Saccacio, RealtyTrac's chief executive officer, said in the statement.

This of course is and artificial stimulant trying to mask a disastrous situation.

A total of 306,627 homes were issued default notices of were seized by banks last month. Similar figures are expected to be the same in December.

Worst of all three loans went bad for every one that improved in the first 10 months of this year, according to a Dec. 2 report from Lender Processing Services Inc.

In California we had three of the worst hit areas in this country. Merced, Stockton and Modesto. Other badly hit areas included Riverside, San Bernardino, Bakersfield, Sacramento and Vallejo.
California had the most filings with 73,995, up 22 percent from a year earlier.

So with all of the advertising telling us to buy now from realtors the truth is that the beat goes on, the beat goes on.

About Alberto Marrero Salas:
Worked with Merril Lynch and Pru Bache in the go go 70"s and 80"s. When greed was good and yuppies were in.
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